The effect of COVID-19 on food sales.

Both COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and recessionary employment loss severely impacted US food sales during 2020. This article estimates the historical relationship between food expenditures and employment at the county level. Using these estimates, we simulate the impact of the loss of employment on food sales and find that, on average, employment loss increased food-at-home (FAH) sales by 1.3% and decreased food-away-from-home (FAFH) sales by 0.5% in 2020. We argue differences to the actual 4.8% increase in FAH sales and 19.5% decrease in FAFH sales in 2020 likely stem from the more drastic COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and behavioral changes.

Consumer demand for food at home and food away from home: Understanding economic linkages during the pandemic

Household food expenditure has shifted away from Food at Home (FAH) and towards Food Away from Home (FAFH). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, FAFH's share of food expenditure surpassed that of FAH, reaching 55% in 2019. Yet economic research on FAFH and the interaction of FAFH and FAH has been limited. Combining scanner data for meat sales in grocery stores with data for FAFH expenditure, we estimate a model of demand for at-home meat, incorporating FAFH expenditure as a demand shifter. We quantify substitution between FAFH expenditure and FAH meat and quantify the impact of the COVID-19 disruptions to the food service sector on retail prices of FAH meat. © 2023 The Authors. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Agricultural & Applied Economics Association.